Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
death_wish
on 19/06/2022, 02:03:35 UTC
⭐ Merited by somac. (1)

"they" might be going for 13600$

It seems if we reach down there, Celsius' holdings get liquidated and 24k BTC get thrown on the market.

If that happens we might just get the Vegeta memes ready again..

https://www.reddit.com/r/CelsiusNetwork/comments/vdxnq2/celsius_liquidation_price_is_now_13601/
disclaimer:
just stuff that I found... verify yourself pls

Seems right to me, either that or they are actually trying to destroy bitcoin here.

I wonder if my partner buysolar read that and told me he thought 13k was bottom.

Yes I'm panicking. Not going to mindrust though.

Thanks for the candour, but please don’t panic.  Bitcoin needs people who are both idealistic, and shrewd about the gritty realities of the world.  It is a rare combination.

Our problem now is that the economic warfare is a means of propaganda warfare—which in turn supports economic warfare, as a feedback loop.

Everything needs a narrative nowadays.  The U.S. Dollar is a house of cards built of interlocking narratives.  People’s trust in banks is objectively stupid—but it is founded on a narrative.

Economically, the Bitcoin narrative is dead.  It is already.*  That does not mean that Bitcoin is dead (LOL), but only that savvier Bitcoiners need to get out in front of foreseeable developments—lest they be perceived as deluding themselves with a Reality Distortion Field.

Some parts of the Bitcoin economic narrative are best discarded.  (I never believed in PlanB; and I always took four-year cycle theories with a grain of salt, beyond the obvious supply-side effect of the Halvings.)  Others are sound in the abstract, but need concrete discussions adjusted to fit reality.  For only one example, Bitcoin as a store of wealth is fundamentally sound—if and only if Bitcoin is treated as money, and we burn to the ground every foolish notion that treats Bitcoin as “like a stock”.  I have been saying for years that we need to get decoupled from stocks, and coupled to PMs ASAP.  (“I told you so.”)  That is largely a matter of narratives, and of making the narratives fit reality rather than living in fantasyland:  Bitcoin’s nature is not to be a stock.  Treating a fundamentally non-stock-like thing as “like a stock” must bring disastrous results, both for individual investors and for the whole Bitcoin market!

People obviously are not generally using Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.  Because they see dollars as “money”, and Bitcoin as a stock-like thing that you trade for money.  Anyone who wants to brand me overly theoretical or idealistic:  I am the realistic one!  Your ideas have been demolished by reality.*

If we apply a sort of Gresham’s Law to narratives about Bitcoin, I am confident that Bitcoin will recover on a firmer, more solid foundation so that it can rise to the heavens as it should.  Accordingly, this is only a setback.  I still look forward to my million-dollar bitcoins.


*  “No one who has held for at least 4 years has ever been at loss.”  200 WMA as a reliable bottom (I never believed in the PlanB-style voodoo, but I recognized it as a Schelling point).  Never falling below the previous cycle top.  As I write this, we are nominally >3% below previous cycle top and >17% below 200 WMA—and falling again, after what looks to me like a dead-cat bounce.  In real value terms, the dollar’s inflation has so horribly distorted the Bitcoin market that I think we have dipped as low as half the December 2017 top in December 2017 dollars—maybe lower.  These are already accomplished facts.  Nothing could worse kill a recovery than retreating into a Reality Distortion Field.