Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
The reason I reference this, is because most Bitcoiners and traders get it wrong. Most thought $30K wouldn't break, but as soon as it did, those people were all expecting ~$15K prcies.
Assuming most voting in this poll get it wrong (again); Bitcoin closes June above $20K, the industry has hit max pain already and we'll see $25K before $15K
Assuming most voting in this poll get it wrong (again); Bitcoin closes June above $20K, the industry has hit max pain already and we'll see $25K before $15K
That’s just being blindly contrarian. Also, you are leaving out a few crucial steps. Pointed omissions.
After $30k broke, many people thought that $25k would hold. After that broke, most people took the 200 WMA line as an article of faith. Why did you omit that?
After Bitcoin broke 200 WMA and the 2017 cycle top (even in nominal dollar terms, not adjusted for inflation!), then the people who thought $30k would hold are talking about $15k, or even below.
For my part, this does not make me pessimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term future. See my comparison to the history of the gold market. I see Bitcoin as digital gold. Even gold can suffer an extreme, extended bear market much worse than I expect here; so, too, could Bitcoin. It is realistic to acknowledge that as a possibility, and not improbable as things now stand.
I do think we can declare TA dead. Declare 200 WMA dead as a reliable Bitcoin Bottom. We have gone into a deep crash below 200 WMA for longer than prior precedents, such as the March 2020 flash-crash caused by Covid panic; and we have too low for too long to compare prior precedents for hovering just under/around 200 WMA (August/September 2015, or the days following the Covid panic crash).
That’s better for Bitcoin, in the long run. Let’s stop with the juju, and refocus on long-term value fundamentals.
The bottom could already be in, now. Or not. I don’t care: Either way, I believe in Bitcoin for the long term. And I do know that Hopium is a dangerous drug. Nothing hurts like false hope!
Called it:
A. Bull traps. Destroying long-term confidence in BTC needs not one big crash, but a series of fake recoveries followed by worse crashes, false hopes, broken dreams. This is psychological warfare as much as economic warfare. We now have memes about "Slaying of a Bearwhale", Honey Badger - a common belief that BTC always recovers and goes up. Evil Hat wants to replace that with a popular belief that "what goes up, must come down".
Evil Hat(TM) wants to break all long-term uppitiness in Bitcoin, shatter all long-term trends, smash the 200 WMA line. Ultimately, it wants to throw BTC into a death-spiral that only bottoms out when 10k BTC buys 2 pizzas again.
This cannot be done with one simple crash. [...]
Evil Hat(TM) wants to break all long-term uppitiness in Bitcoin, shatter all long-term trends, smash the 200 WMA line. Ultimately, it wants to throw BTC into a death-spiral that only bottoms out when 10k BTC buys 2 pizzas again.
This cannot be done with one simple crash. [...]
Maybe we will now turn around. Maybe. Maybe not.
I want to get out in front of any further potential crashes, expect the unexpected, and deprive the bears who hate Bitcoin of any more chances for “I told you so.” OK, they were right that we broke 200 WMA and the 2017 cycle top. So what? If it goes to $15k, or $10k, or whatever, I still expect someday to see my million-dollar Bitcoins. It may take longer than I previously expected; but I don’t care, because I already said that I am in it for the long term. My expectation is based on long-term value fundamentals, not on lines on a chart.
If the bottom is already in, take it as a bonus.
If not, then holding BTC now is like holding gold when it crashed spectacularly a few decades. So what? It’s gold. Buy and hold.