Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
My personal benchmarks for this type of reversal would be the following:
1. Closing today above $20K (roughly 10% below the 200WMA which wouldn't be a disaster). Ideally above $21K consolidation, but can't be too hopeful.
2. Closing next week above the 200WMA (which will be $22.4K next week). Reclaiming $20K would likely achieve this I think, especially $21K.
3. Then trading towards $25K the beginning of next week, before a correction, in order to close June comfortably above $20K.
1. Closing today above $20K (roughly 10% below the 200WMA which wouldn't be a disaster). Ideally above $21K consolidation, but can't be too hopeful.
2. Closing next week above the 200WMA (which will be $22.4K next week). Reclaiming $20K would likely achieve this I think, especially $21K.
3. Then trading towards $25K the beginning of next week, before a correction, in order to close June comfortably above $20K.
1. Price closed yesterday above $20K ✔️
Price is looking positive so far today. Ideally another close above $20K today would print a doji reversal at volume support on the 3 Day chart (ideally above the open of $20.4K):
I don't think that's too much to ask for right now as price is currently carving out a V-shaped reversal on smaller time-frames (such as the 4hr):
Price is facing resistance at the $21K level as anticipated (volume point of control), so re-testing $19K local support seems plausible, but I think reclaiming $20K is more likely to install some hope into the market rather than more panic selling. Already the bigger question for me is whether the 200WMA will hold if/when $30K is re-tested, rather than if $17.5K is the low.
my fears are for the july 7-14 time frame. there will be fud as to whether the fed jumps 50 or 75 points.
and if they do jump the 75 and say we will be looking the jump in august I would think the markets drop and drag btc down under 16k and closer to 15k.
for now i think we are good.
Thanks for the info, that's useful to know. I'd also be somewhat cautious/fearful around this time-frame, especially if by then price has rebounded to the $30K level that then acts as macro resistance.
I also think for now we are good, and a rebound is more likely than further downside at present. It's the dead cat bounce scenario I'm more concerned about, that of a solid rebound that fails to hold the 200WMA second time around. That would be the sort of scenario imo that could lead to $12K prices, especially if the Weekly RSI get's rejected from leaving oversold conditions, that could be somewhat tragic.