LOL.  You are so far off target, I am quite sure you are being deliberately obtuse:  You are not that dumb.

I have no credit cards.  I used to, once upon a time.  I cut them up and threw them away, because I am against that whole system.

As it now stands, I have zero debt of any kind.  At the time I started posting here last month, my entire debt load consisted of a single margin account that ate almost all of my assets.  I paid that off in full on 18 June 2022.  For years until January 2022, I had zero debt.  I think I am not bad at keeping my “shit” together, as you so elegantly put it.

Now, I am unsure whether I should sadly thank you for wasting your time trying to give me advice that is entirely inapplicable to me, or I should wonder if you are trying to discredit me by misrepresenting me as some debt-ridden defi degen who just can’t seem to “get [his] shit together”.

I have previously suffered life catastrophes that wiped me out financially.  Unlike my recent loss, those were not my fault.  I have said that before.

What happened before is none of anybody’s business.  I will not give any hints.  But let’s put it this way:  If, in the hypothetical, I had been bankrupted by the medical expenses of a family member’s prolonged terminal illness, then you would not mistreat me as some “gambler”, and you would not dare to give me some outrageously condescending “get your shit together” lecture.

It wasn’t that, but it was equally in the realm of tragic misfortunes that can befall anyone.  Newsflash:  Life is unfair.  I have learned to take that in stride.

I will not say any more about my life, or what is really going on with me.  I have exposed too much already—for my own safety and privacy, I have exposed too much in a public forum.  It is anyway none of your business.  I am not asking for your advice, and I do not need your advice.

Suffice it to say that I consciously choose to be “overinvested” in Bitcoin, as a proportion of my assets.  I have always made that choice—for principle, not for profit.  It is my choice to make, and I very well understand it.


No.  I have seen you tell people they were overinvested for keeping all their life savings in Bitcoin, without significant fiat, and without sufficient other investment assets.  Trolling you?

In the post to which I hereby reply, you give some of your standard advice about starting at 1% to 25% of one’s portfolio.  That looks low to me.  Trolling you?

And it is a legitimate question how I can simultaneously be a “lowcoiner” with too little BTC to care about it, and also “overinvested” in BTC.

I know much more about finance than you presume.  Any professional financial advisor in the world would tell me that with my current overall level of assets, I am drastically overinvested in Bitcoin.  Overinvested and overexposed.  I do not care.  That is my choice—a choice made consciously and intelligently.


Gamblers’ intuitions are usually wrong.

Protip:  It is mathematically proved that for a certain described “red-and-black” model of a game of chance, the optimal strategy is “bold play”:  Bet as much as you need to for winning the whole gain you want in one shot, rather than attempting many smaller bets.  The result has been extended and adjusted to various game scenarios.  This paper has a good description, and a bibliography:

https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0412362

Needless to say, I do not recommend “bold play” gambling as investment advice.


Why do you even mention this?  Are you paying attention?

As of January 2022, I had plenty of Bitcoin.  Never enough, but a decently-sized chunk.

I did not buy in 2021 (except for my usual adjustments from altcoins), because I do not usually buy in bull markets!  I prefer to buy in bear markets.  Accordingly, I have always loved bear markets.

I missed the dip in July 2021, because I like to ignore the market.  That is my privilege, when my coins are safely in my wallet where they belong.


You have power over you use the word.

You are speaking to me as if BTC is a governance token which, on the basis of wealth, grants a club card for the privilege of expressing respectable opinions about Bitcoin.  And you are leveraging that as a subtle type of ad hominem to discredit such of my other propositions as you find disagreeable, without addressing my arguments on their merits.

Stop that nonsense.

I have known total degens who had >100x more BTC than I have ever had.  All they knew was greed and stupidity.

I have also known kind, intelligent people who gave far more to the Bitcoin community than I ever have—who wound up with less BTC than I had once upon a time.

Ultimately, ideas need to stand on their own merits.  If you disagree with me, and if your best argument is to call me a “low-coiner” because I just suffered a catastrophic near-wipeout, then that about sums up the credibility of your own arguments, and your ability to defend them.


If you think that the 200 WMA is not broken, then you are living in fantasyland.  And if you were to give investment advice based on it being a bottom, after it is broken, then that would be outright dishonest.

As for gold, you are being deliberately obtuse.  I have always considered gold and Bitcoin to be complimentary; and I have always said that Bitcoiner arguments that deprecate gold are as ill-considered as goldbugs who deprecate Bitcoin.

You seem to have a problem with my arguing for Bitcoin’s fundamental value.  I don’t know why.  Do you hate Bitcoin?

Reality does not give a hoot about your obsession with some lines on a chart:  In the long term, reality settles on fundamental value.  Now, I have gone “back to basics” and argued persuasively that the breaking of 200 WMA does not matter.  I have argued persuasively that in the long term, it does not matter how low Bitcoin now tumbles.

I think that is important:  Just a few days ago, I saw right here in WO some Bitcoiners get scared that were were deep under the magical 200 WMA line.  Scared.  Because we broke some meaningless lines on a chart:  The 200 WMA, the 2017 cycle top...  Oh, will you now tell me that the 2017 top was not now broken “because reasons”?  Anyway, I think it’s important to tell people that these things do not matter.  Bitcoin still valuable.  Even if the bottom is not yet in (there is no guarantee that we’ve bottomed!), this little downturn will someday be a subject for laughter.  “Oh, do you remember when Bitcoin crashed so hard that it smashed all of the dumb TA bottoms?  Well, look at it now!”

I have argued persuasively that Bitcoin, like gold, can survive very deep bear markets with no precedent in any TA juju.  Do you disagree?  Now that, in fact, many of your own TA beliefs have been thoroughly violated, do you believe that Bitcoin will die?

Your dismissal of my ideas as “dumb” rather applies a word that describes your reply here.