Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by OutOfMemory (1)
You are not completely on the wrong track, even though some of these inferences about correlation are bullshit.
In other words, surely we may well have some short-term correlation between bitcoin and various mature asset classes.. and why did you not include the NASDAQ in there .. mainstream pundits love to talk about bitcoin's supposed correlation with the NASDAQ.. but sometimes the magnitude is just way different in one direction or another .. even though they are moving in the same direction at the same time... and such magnitude differences should provide some hints and a decent amount of consideration that some care has to be taken in terms of expecting that bitcoin respond in the same way as various mainstream mature assets or even to consider some temporary divergences that end up making BIG ASS differences in terms of "you should have been HODLing bitcoin you dumb fuck" kinds of happenings (not talking about you specifically, Biodom - even though sometimes you deserve to be included in such.. you fuck... (said with a large amount of affection).. hahahaha)
On a slightly different topic. I was going to edit my earlier post in which I was talking about my own considerations of the 200-week moving average as BTC's historical price bottom in light of some of Saylor's latest comments, too.. but since postenings are continue to happen so rapidly in this here thread, I decided to add this content to this current post instead.. I id not want my edit to get lost in the flood of ongoing postenings.. NO one can keep up anymore, not even bots fuck you guys posting soo much.. kettle black, again..
Regarding my own personal leverage: I have posted quite a few times in this thread and in other places on the forum about the value of leveraging in order to frontload your BTC investment when you are not sure about whether the BTC price is going to go up, and you believe that your cashflow is not coming in fast enough for you to be able to sufficiently advantage from such potential UPpity BTC price moves that might happen but are not guaranteed, and also I have never shied away from assertions that anyone employing these kinds of leveraging tactics are responsible to make sure that they are able to service their loans (leverage) under negative BTC price scenarios (or other unexpected negative events that might happen) and even possible extreme negative scenarios.. .. which surely these events can be considered as leveraging of future incoming cashflows and those future incoming cashflows could dry up or shrink, so in that sense, there should be back up cashflow or sources of funds, too in order to service such loans in even worse case scenarios..
Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC price bottom, I am also not going to apologize for my maintaining a position that the use of leverage can be a very valuable practice if used with a decent amount of prudence and weighing of the various expected values and balancing those scenarios in order to prepare for lower probability scenarios coming true in contrast to the higher probability scenarios contained in your various calculations that happen at the time of contemplating whether or not to use leverage.. and if so, how much.
From my own personal perspective, I have used leverage a lot of times in life, and may well have not gotten into decently high levels of positive networth without the employment of various kinds of financial leverage that I had at my disposal over the years... and even in recent times, I have used leverage also.. yet even with my most recent leveraging of bitcoin/cash and various values related to cashflow and other assets that I have in order to attempt to front load more extensively on the potentiality of Bitcoin UPpity.. my total leverage amounts were likely less than 0.25% of my total BTC value.. and even after BTC prices dropped 50% or even our current max bottom of 75%, I am still under 1% leverage in those various standing and ongoing debts that I had decided to employ and I am still servicing and the employment of those debts surely did not end up paying off as of to date because the bitcoin price failed to go up, did not even go sideways as a second best scenario.. did not do a mediocre or reasonably aggressive correction but instead went balls to the wall into extreme beyond even more extreme expectations of a correction..
So yeah, it sucks that it would have been better to have had not employed such leverage, and a main solice may well be that the amount of the leverage in terms of the portfolio value is not really very high.. .. and some might proclaim, why even employ such low level of leverage in the first place.. that would have been less than 0.5%.. how the fuck you going to profit when you are employing such low leverage, and I do believe that there is still potential to profit from those kinds of plays.. especially since I have profited a lot in the past from doing it.. and surely sometimes it would have payed off way better to employ higher percentages of leverage, so to some extent there is some luck involved in terms of ONOY having had employed less than 0.5% leverage, because I would not have been opposed to something like 5%-ish leverage if some decently correct circumstances might have presented themselves to me.. I would have had some difficulties going very much higher than those amounts.. but again, for me it depends on the deal.. and surely some products that are merely earning high interest without much if any logical or convincing explanation of whey would not be the kinds of opportunities that I would have considered as good leveraging opportunities.... so in that regard, there may well be some luck since entering those kinds of deals partially depend upon when, too.. and maybe the amount that ends up getting deployed for such will also be affected by details of the deal.
Great Shub-Niggurath the almighty old one...
How many keyboards do you buy in a month?
I cannot disclose that information.
And here I thought *I* was loquacious.
Yes. You are.
Wait for it, we're gonna bounce any minute now. It's gonna be strong. A real trend reversal. Bullish phase incoming.
OK, now I'm getting scared.
For the first time in many many months price goes below my DCA and the local Llama spots out this???
Is this what they were talking about as "Max Pain?"
I doubt that we are even close to max pain...
bears are going to push the BTC price down as low as they can and hold it there as long as they can.
Good call, Jay.
When I saw that, I thought: "did I even say that?" Then I clicked on it, and I also noticed the date.
Holy fucking shit that was more than a month an d a half ago whe we first broke below the 100-week moving average at $35k.
In other words, it seems to me that you are a little out of context in your leaving some ambiguity in when that statement was made, no?