Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Citing Snowden as if he were a bitcoin expert..
Ok.
On a slightly different topic. I was going to edit my earlier post in which I was talking about my own considerations of the 200-week moving average as BTC's historical price bottom in light of some of Saylor's latest comments, too.. but since postenings are continue to happen so rapidly in this here thread, I decided to add this content to this current post instead.. I id not want my edit to get lost in the flood of ongoing postenings.. NO one can keep up anymore, not even bots (not going to name any names, here)... .. fuck you guys posting soo much.. kettle black, again..
[...] Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC price bottom, [...]
[...] Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC price bottom, [...]
IMO, from here forward, continual reliance on 200 WMA is embarrassing. 200 WMA is dead as a Bitcoin Bottom. Failure to acknowledge this reeks of “Reality Distortion Field”—a public relations problem that is particularly acute, when the public is already primed with many years of “Bitcoin is a cult” propaganda.
Seems way too early to be making broad proclamations about the death of the significance of the 200-week moving average as a bottom.. or a bottom is or whatever we are going to end up calling it or changing it to.. if we even need to change it.. just depends upon context.. I am not going to presume more down from here even though it is surely decently possible to have more down from here.
Please reread my post about gold. You entirely missed the point. I was not talking about gold, in itself: I was providing an analogy to digital gold, i.e. Bitcoin.
I don't want to suffer any more than I already did when I read it the first time.
You seem to have as tendency to weave through a lot of abstractions and you seem to also frequently leave out important points, so that might be part of the reason that I cannot accept a lot of your framings on a variety of your price related discussions.. and even other stuff related to bitcoin's investment thesis and personal ways to manage risk, especially. Horey sheit..!!
Gold buyers don’t say such things to themselves as, “This astrological line on a chart is our bottom, because past performance predicts future results.”
If a statistical line representing historical prices is crossed, die-hard goldbugs do not suddenly buckle at the knees and cry, “I can’t believe it! We shouldn’t be here!”
If a statistical line representing historical prices is crossed, die-hard goldbugs do not suddenly buckle at the knees and cry, “I can’t believe it! We shouldn’t be here!”
bitcoin has quite a few differences from gold including but not limited to: bitcoin is very immature asset class so is likely taking a lot of whatever monetary value that gold may have still had.. and gold is likely not going to lose all of its monetary value.. but quite a lot of it.
bitcoin is bringing way more abilities for way wider adoption of bitcoin because fractions can be bought..
I am sick of hearing about gold in this thread.. we talked about it so much in previous years going back to the beginning of my membership on the forum.. sick of it.. sick of it.. repetition.. Your points in regard to your bitcoin gold comparison.. even if you are wanting to be charitable towards bitcoin.. .. if you have any.. are not resonating with me..
As I now write, we are about 10% below 200 WMA. We recently went much further below. We have been below it for too long, and gone too deep below it for too long, to pretend that this it was even approximately the bottom (as it was in all previous crashes).
Clinging to 200 WMA as having some special significance is now Considered Harmful(TM).
Clinging to 200 WMA as having some special significance is now Considered Harmful(TM).
Just because you want the 200-week moving average to lose its relevance/significance does not mean that it will lose its relevance/significance... so stop ur lil selfie in trying to ascribe that I am clinging to it, too much blah blah blah.. that's bullshit..
I give less than two shits about the 200-week moving average.. except that it seems to continue to be a very significant and relevant consideration.. just like the stock to flow is. . .whether either one of them holds or not or whatever spin you are trying to get from bitcoin's price being below such 200-week moving average price area for a week so far... yes the BTC spot price has been up to 20% below the 200-week moving average so far, as well.
Let’s focus on the fundamentals. Not on TA lines.
"We " can focus on whatever the fuck "we" like.
You can go live your lil fantasy of hoping the BTC price comes down while you proclaim that you are not hoping for such all that you like.. Your hope is not going to add likelihood for it to happen. maybe it will go down, and maybe it will not.
Gold buyers who bought gold around $260 about two decades ago were buying because, um, it’s gold. Of course, it is valuable! And Bitcoin?
I am not going ot get into this.. you know why because your dumbass attempt at a comparison is a stretch of relevance at best. I already mentioned that bitcoin happens to be about 1,000x better than gold.. but bitcoin is also less than 1/10th the value of gold in terms of market cap but sure it could take 50 to 200 years to work out the matching of the BTC price to the actual comparison relative to gold.
Regarding my own personal leverage:
You are obviously a sophisticated investor with decades of experience.
Please just help me remind people who think they are “sophisticated” to remember that:
- As I recently mentioned somewhere, it has happened that a pricing oracle mispriced BTC at $5402 due to alleged “software errors” when BTC was trading around $43,500. No actual BTC was traded at $5402, but people were liquidated based on a BTC price of $5402. (Correction of what I said before: The “erroneous” publishers published negligible BTC prices, not “absolutely zero” BTC prices; the effect on the average was the same.)
- In October 2021, BTC actually flash-crashed to $8k on Binance. Only for about 40 seconds—but, well, someone please tell me, is Binance’s liquidator any more forgiving than others of brief dips?
- Unlike a traditional margin call, cryptocurrency exchange liquidation generally requires only a dip one microdollar below your liquidation price for one microsecond.The whole cryptocurrency margin ecosystem has the incentives of loan-sharking. Those incentives are exploited in full accord with the ethics of people who also profit from pump-and-dump Ponzi-coins.
You need to be either stupid or crazy to take a loan on these terms, for almost any purpose. To avoid accusations of deficient IQ tantamount to mental retardation, I plead a bout of temporary insanity. Do I know better than to do this? Yes, I do. Why did I do it - why, why, why!? - Leverage is a curve, not linear. (That’s also why it’s so profitable, if you avoid getting rekt!) Thus, if BTC is priced at $5k, your 0.5% leverage will suddenly skyrocket much higher than a newbie would expect. Mentioned for the sake of any newbies reading this—not to insult your intelligence or experience.
- I myself started out with low leverage—not as low as yours, but pretty damn low. I also started with a definite strategy to deleverage and exit, and sufficient assets to do so if necessary. Part of my problem is that I did not obey my own plans—but only part. Anyway, what was that about the best-laid plans of mice and men?Quote from: “To a Mouse”, by Robert Burns (1785)But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an’ men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain
For promis’d joy.
For these reasons, I have positively decided that if I ever use leverage or BTC-backed debt again, it will be either:
- With a pro-grade robot. A robot can react faster than any human. That does not protect against buggy oracles or near-instantaneous flash-crashes, but it does cover almost any other scenario.
- For extremely short-term loans. For example,
I currently have some assets locked in stake which I cannot release without ETH gas I cannot afford. (Yes, I wanted to grab some ETH at $900 recently for this. No money!) When the time comes that I decide to unlock it, I may borrow against my itty-bitty BTC to buy ETH (or even just borrow ETH), unlock shitcoins from stake contracts, sell some shitcoins to cover the loan immediately so that I can immediately withdraw my BTC, and then sell some more shitcoins to buy more BTC. It should all be over in minutes. To get rekt that way, I would need bad luck tantamount to winning a negative lottery.[Edit: Bad example. Duh. The contract requires 7 days to unlock, during which time the money is untouchable—and its volatile value at the end is unpredictable at the beginning. That is why I didn’t, couldn’t use this money to save my BTC. Thanks, POSification of the world! I currently have no idea how I will retrieve that money without taking other losses to buy ETH I don’t want. Thanks, Ethereum!]
I don’t think either of those falls into the category of “relapsing drug addict or compulsive gambler”.
I guess you are cured, then.