We were already in a channel more or less under 200 WMA, between about that and ~10% below.  IMO, it had been doing that for long enough to be teetering on borderline breakage.  I had been hoping for a scenario like August–September 2015—scraping along just below/just above for a month, then recovering.  At this point, since we crashed even below the previous cycle top (even in nominal dollars, never mind real value!), I think that 200 WMA is quite dead.  Not “Bitcoin is dead”:  Excessive reliance on a technical indicator is dead.

Gold had a two-decade extreme bear market.  Anyone who bought gold at the wrong time had to wait an awful lot longer than four years to be not underwater.  I also think that was a politically motivated economic attack, though I don’t want to get into off-topic discussion here that will derail into other matters.  (I have mentioned this in some prior post, a few weeks ago...  Something about gold-producing countries under international sanctions.)

Only fools declared gold dead.  Smart people bought gold as low as ~$260, not so very long ago.

If we can escape from erroneous thinking about Bitcoin as “like a stock”, and really start treating it as digital gold, then there is ample precedent for shrugging off much worse crashes and bear markets than I now anticipate.  As bad as this one is.  Even if we are still nowhere near the bottom—maybe; maybe not; I am realistically pessimistic, but not prepared to make a call either way.

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FTFY.  As an inveterate pedant, I could not resist.