Um, wow, no—this needs some quick clarification:
I doubt that mindrusting was anything as dramatic as the arguable betrayals of Mike Hearn or Gavin Andresen or Craig wright or roger ver.. but even if any of those folks wanted to be in bitcoin or get back into bitcoin, bitcoin will not stop them.. even if they lost credibility in quite a few bitcoin circles.
Those comparisons would be wildly disproportionate. You just named four individuals whom I judge are amongst the worst scum on Earth. Total liars, actively malicious, corrupt to the core. Based on what I know of the situation, I would NOT put poor mindrust in that category—not anywhere even close to it! Wow.
Poor mindrust. I almost suddenly feel sorry for him again, as I initially did in March 2020. With such comparisons, are you
trying to invoke my sympathies towards him?
I do recall that mindrust had shown several times of weakness prior to March 2020 and usually during extensive period in which the BTC price was correcting and/or failing to go up... which were likely just signs of his having been over invested rather than him being a bad person.
Before he dumped his coins, I myself didn’t know, or want to know about his personal finances. I was vaguely aware of some of his chit-chat about his buys, but I didn’t really pay attention to that. I have never measured Bitcoiners by the sizes of their wallets, just as long as they put their money where their mouths are: Holding BTC, holding amounts that are financially significant to them, striving to increase their BTC. In my case, I am not just conveniently applying a new standard to myself; I never treated anyone else differently.
I knew of mindrust for other reasons. I perceived him as a sincerely idealistic, principled Bitcoiner. That’s why it shocked me when he panic-dumped—it probably shocked me harder than it shocked you.
Bitcoin is money, and it is more than money. It is a fraught admixture of entwined ideals and greed, a marriage of selfishness and altruism. That’s actually why it works so well. Some only want the “money” part of it—but many don’t. The way he talked, the way he acted, mindrust didn’t—
until he mindrusted.
He also mindrusted some of his relations with people who had been sympathetic to him after he dumped. I don’t want to drag it all out here; I would not unnecessarily rehash it in Reputation today, so why would I in the Wall Observer?
Some of that occurred in full public view, in various threads. Let’s leave it at that.
And I remind you, as to Bitcoin,
he did not only panic-dump. His panic-sell could have been a momentary weakness. Human frailty. It happens. But
after he panic-dumped, this ostensibly idealistic Bitcoiner gave Bitcoin one of the worst votes of no-confidence that I have ever seen (
some of which I quoted in a recent post):
- He didn’t re-buy any chunks. Not even a fraction of what he could have! Nothing—when he had cash in hand, he re-bought nothing. He declared that he would only DCA.
- He said that he would DCA for an amount that was ridiculously trivial compared to his prior investment: $50/week. I understand if someone poor can only do $50/week, or $10/week, or whatever; as it stands, right now, I myself cannot even do that much. But when someone goes from a relatively high level of BTC investment to restart from zero with $50/week DCA, all as a voluntary decision, that is tantamount to spitting at Bitcoin. In the overall circumstance, it is a token investment (so to speak).
- Even weeks after he dumped, when BTC was firmly far up above the bottom and well on its way to recovery, he essentially declared an expectation that if Covid was not promptly cured, then Bitcoin would go to zero. Not even that we may have a gruesome bear market: That it would likely go to zero!
WTF? I know some never-had-any nocoiners who have more confidence in Bitcoin.
I do not knee-jerk reject a rational pessimism. To the contrary: I dislike Hopium—and right now, I myself think that we may be in for an extended bear market.
Maybe. My reasoning is quite similar to
ivomm’s short-/medium-term pessimism, which you found meritable.
Contrast my attitude to mindrust’s:
I admit that that would be beneficial to me personally, if that happens—because as soon as I can get some new cash flow, I will be grabbing as much BTC as I can. If we go into some ridiculously worst-case crash due to massive liquidations of all the giant-sized scams in the ecosystem, then my rule is:
Buy—if it goes lower, buy more. If it then goes even lower, then buy even more!
For I have
long-term optimism about Bitcoin. I optimize primarily to maximize my BTC holding—well, I try to; that is my goal, notwithstanding this recent lamentable failure to move in the desired direction. I know that I can’t time the bottom in an irrational market, amidst extreme volatility, when unpredictable events may yank the price up or down at any moment.
What you will NOT hear out of me is “Oh my gawd, PANIC!!! It’s going to zero!” What you will NOT see is me is sitting on a pile of fiat with negligible BTC holdings. Never!
I recall that there were some periods right around March 2020 in which members were wondering if mindrust was telling the truth about actually having had sold all his coins, which then leads to questions about whether he was telling the truth about buying the coins in the first place.
Later on in 2020, after Saylor’s announcement boosted the market, mindrust was cagey about his status. My read on it was that he was trying to make it seem he had more than he did. I could be wrong about that. Anyway, I believe in financial privacy. I don’t try to pry into what people really have, as long as I think they are behaving in a manner consistent with their own expressed ideals.
I hate hypocrites and cheap talkers. You praise Bitcoin? Put your money where your mouth is! Or else please, just admit that you are only a speculator. Plenty of those buy BTC, or don’t, or buy and then panic-dump. No problem: I actually prefer for mere speculators to panic-dump in a crash, because that tends to move coins into HODLer hands.
From what I know, it seems to me that mindrusting could happen to any of us, and for sure there seem to be strategies to lessen likelihoods that mindrusting might happen, but any of us could end up in circumstances in which some variation of mindrusting ends up happening.. seems to me...
I will never mindrust. I am certain of that, for I have had my character tested in other on-the-spot, moment-of-truth ways that were detrimental to me. And as I have said many times here, if I were to mindrust—voluntarily to panic-sell in a crash, when I have the free choice at that moment—then I would kill myself. I wouldn’t be able to live with myself.
Needless to say, I do not expect that of anyone who is only in it for the money.
Aside: I see that you made another long reply to me. I will need to look at that later.
Please don’t mistake it as self-serving lowcoiner bearishness when I say, I do think there is a significant probability that we are entering an extended bear market.
Not a certainty. The bottom may already be in! But a quite significant probability. If that proves to be the case, of course I will take advantage as much as I can.
Note that
Sam Bankman-Fried is trying to set us up instead for a hollow recovery, and a future full of moral hazard. His bailout activity shows up in the above-linked article—it seems most everywhere now.
That is long-term pessimistic for Bitcoin. We need for bad businesses to be shaken out of the market, even if that crashes BTC for awhile. Otherwise, they will only do the same again—
and they will do it worse.Protip for SBF—didn’t you learn anything about finance!?—at least, get the Wikipedia overview of this basic concept:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard#moralhazard