Thanks, Peter.
I just put one chart upon the other in photoshop and it astonished me how well they fit.
How could adoption grow this quickly?
You have answered that question better than I could.
You also make me realize a very good point:
the supercrash of 2015 (100k to 3k) would correspond to the CHASM of bitcoin adoption (1-3%).
That correspondence increases the probability of the 2014 superbubble scenario, in my opinion.
Thanks again for your fractal chart. Just to confirm: is the vertical scale stretched on the photoshopped version? The growth spurt predicted in % for the "super bubble" is actually bigger than the growth spurt in 2011, correct? Do you know what the scaling factor is?
In my opinion, for bitcoin to witness a "super bubble," we'd need ETFs trading on NASDAQ or NYSE and significant deployment of bitcoin ATMs around the world. People must have he ability to
buy big. Therefore, I think the bubble would have to occur either after the ETFs are available, or, more likely, the bubble would start a month before the ETF is ready (due to pre-emptive buying by insiders). Since I doubt we'll see ETFs until late 2014 or 2015, a
huge ramp in price before the fall 2014 would surprise me (but I am not implying that the price will remain stable at $450 either).
Witnessing a "super bubble" would be fascinating. I expect the media would begin to talk about all the benefits of bitcoin that we've known all along, as well as trivialize its challenges. It would be a 180 deg shift in sentiment. Some of the people you know who have dismissed bitcoin up to this point would become users, while simultaneously maintaining the view that it makes sense now (Bitcoin 2.0) because it's been "cleaned up" or it's "matured" or some nonsense like that.
And then it would crash harder than ever.
NOTE TO READERS: this is not a prediction--just a thought experiment.