You cannot have a 100k BTC right now or in a few months: 3600 coins produced per day x 100k each = 360mn USD per day just to buy the daily production. Not to mention all those who'll be dumping because they'll be rich from selling their 10 BTCs for 1 mn USD. Who is going to throw all these billions in the market?
For comparison purposes, daily mining of gold is at 7 tons per day (x40mn USD each = 280 mn USD per day to buy the daily production).
For comparison purposes, daily mining of gold is at 7 tons per day (x40mn USD each = 280 mn USD per day to buy the daily production).
I believe a super bubble within 6 - 18 months would be possible (let's say I give it a 20% chance of happening). If ETFs are available, and if ATMs are widely deployed, think of the huge market we've suddenly opened up. If it all comes together at the same time, then who knows...
I understand your point about daily mined coins, but that was true in 2011 too, was it not? All those mined coins is part of the reason it would have to crash very hard after peaking.
Think of the money that could be involved. The total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the world was US$51.2 trillion in January 2007. This doesn't include currency or bond markets either. Take just 0.1% of 50 trillion and you still get $50 billion. Pump $50 billion quickly into bitcoin, and you probably get 10X market-cap amplification (rather than Risto's assumed 3.2X equilibrium amplification). This takes you to $500 billion market cap and 13 million coins, so $40,000 per BTC. Yeah of course it crashes, but I think it is certainly possible to see $40,000 per BTC within the next 18 months.
Again, this is not a prediction Just a thought experiment.
