Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by Hueristic (1)
@JJG...regarding holdings going up or down.
Current users is an unknown number because many have just coinbase, binance, etc accounts.
let's assume it is 100-300 mil or take an average of 200 mil.
It is much less than humans on earth by a factor of about 40X.
Therefore, it is inevitable that current holders would have to sell some btc to accommodate new users. Of course, it would occur not by edict, but naturally.
How much each current user "has" to sell (on average)?
My approximation: 21mil-2mil (still to mine, so we don't need to worry about those coins, newcomers can theoretically get all of them)=19mil coins already distributed.
19mil/7.84bil=0.0024 BTC
0.0024X40=0.097 btc
Therefore, I suggest that if you already bought or mined bitcoin and then sold at least roughly 0.1btc, it means that you already distributed enough btc for 40 users at the steady-state level (all that is needed for 40 accounts on average). Of course people could do extra, but selling 0.1btc (on average per current owner and over the last 13 years and probably the next 5-10) would do the trick of "pollination" of the newbies accounts.
This does not preclude periodically buying or mining more, of course.
The fun part is to take how much you sold already and then divide by 0.0024btc. That would equal the number of future average bitcoin accounts (of newbs) you have potentially seeded.
EDIT: Laslo "seeded" 4mil 167thou future average accounts by his 10K btc pizza buy. Such generosity!
Current users is an unknown number because many have just coinbase, binance, etc accounts.
let's assume it is 100-300 mil or take an average of 200 mil.
It is much less than humans on earth by a factor of about 40X.
Therefore, it is inevitable that current holders would have to sell some btc to accommodate new users. Of course, it would occur not by edict, but naturally.
How much each current user "has" to sell (on average)?
My approximation: 21mil-2mil (still to mine, so we don't need to worry about those coins, newcomers can theoretically get all of them)=19mil coins already distributed.
19mil/7.84bil=0.0024 BTC
0.0024X40=0.097 btc
Therefore, I suggest that if you already bought or mined bitcoin and then sold at least roughly 0.1btc, it means that you already distributed enough btc for 40 users at the steady-state level (all that is needed for 40 accounts on average). Of course people could do extra, but selling 0.1btc (on average per current owner and over the last 13 years and probably the next 5-10) would do the trick of "pollination" of the newbies accounts.
This does not preclude periodically buying or mining more, of course.
The fun part is to take how much you sold already and then divide by 0.0024btc. That would equal the number of future average bitcoin accounts (of newbs) you have potentially seeded.
EDIT: Laslo "seeded" 4mil 167thou future average accounts by his 10K btc pizza buy. Such generosity!
I have some troubles understanding how your point relates very much to any of the various points that I had been making in recent times, and I think one of my major points had to do with why would anyone with an already decently large BTC stash have any kind of reasonable, practical or prudent motivation to continue to keep building his/her BTC size, and my vantage point really did not have much if anything to do with how much the selling behavior of such person(s) would be potentially good for the overall bitcoin eco-system - and even you seem to concede that the availability of coinz is all going to "naturally" work itself out in terms of coins being sold at whatever price BTC HODLers choose to release my lil precious..
....and for example if BTC prices ended up being $10million per coin, and we had not sold any and we did not have anything else in the whole world besides our 0.1 BTC that we had been saving and saving and saving, we may well be forced to shave off a wee bit of that if we happen to be hungry - because I doubt that food is going to become free.. and maybe even we might have some desires/needs for other stuff too? and so yeah, if we really fucked up and Gresham lawed to the max by spending every other money or asset that we had, at some point, we might need to shave some off (ooh maybe we also maxed out our collateralized loans against BTC too. and if a payment is due and we don't got any other monies, it may well be better to shave off some lillie precious rather than lose a leg, no? loan sharks might not be no funzies if they not be getting their payments)..
In other words, you are not making bad points, but they seems to be directed thematically different from my own potentially related previous talking points.
Hey Bros, i'm in a hurry, so here's that promised photo from NGC7000 (North America Nebula). Seond try, because my lens fogged in the humid air of the night.
Details: 200mm lens on a H-Alpha modified DSLR, 100x25 sec frames for the stars, 20x60 sec frames for the nebula.
Details: 200mm lens on a H-Alpha modified DSLR, 100x25 sec frames for the stars, 20x60 sec frames for the nebula.
Hmm, yours fogged and you just had to try again and mine fogged and I ate a telephone pole. Maybe I should change hobbies.
Hm?
You are blaming some kinds of lens fogging for your M/c accident?
I spent quite a bit of time in my youth (and even into my middle age driving motorcycles - not so much recently, but not really opposed to the idea. and surely in some locations, driving MC/scooters can be quite practical and convenient).. .when I was really young, fuck I was a risk taker and overall just have to say that there was some luck to get through that period without any major life-diminishing encounters with either moving or stationary objects.
By the way, I know about lenses fogging too, so I would not even have had been questioning your rendition of blame (at least in part).
I recall that frequently I would drive with my helmet visor up (especially at night.. and part of the reason did have to do with some of the fogging that would happen if I put it down), and I would just use the plastic windshield on the motorcycle as a means to block the vast majority of the road wind, and I was on a somewhat country highway and going about 50mph/80kmh.. and in some miraculous kind of a way, some kind of bug ended up hitting me between the eyes, very close to my right eye, and did not even hit the eye, but that impact was so painful and debilitating to my eyesight. It was like all of a sudden going blind but still being able to force a wee bit of eyesight (but not easy because both eyes were tearing and really wanting to close).. I was so fucking lucky that I was able to stop. .and in a kind of almost blind state in the middle of nowhere, and I did not even fall of the motorcycle.. another lucky thing that I was barely able to do and to muster enough muscle movement to accomplish.
Once I stopped, I did recover within about 5-10 minutes and I was even able to open both eyes and stop them from continuing to tear. Luck sometimes.. and surely I did not stop riding motorcycle from that, and I did not even stop putting my visor up either, but it only happened once in my many thousands of hours of overall ride time.