And even if a deep and long dip eventually "kills" it, it doesn't mean much, really. MA indicators do not contain some high-level intelligence that can tell us something very useful when breached. They are just averages of price data.
That is exactly my point!
* Much more succinctly stated.
When I declare that the 200 WMA is “dead”, I mean that it’s dead as a predictor of the Bitcoin Bottom.
And that’s a good thing. I don’t think that’s bearish, but to the contrary: I repudiate the bearishness of everyone who is
worried about being below 200 WMA, who is worried that we have had our worst-ever non-flash-crash break of 200 WMA, and who is worried that we broke 200 WMA
and broke the previous cycle top. (The latter has never happened before—not even close!)
I am well aware that Bitcoin has previously dipped below 200 WMA. I have discussed this in prior posts. The current break is much worse overall, and cannot be excluded as a very brief outlier like the March 2020 panic-crash. My prior posts discussed this at some length. Previous breaks could be rationalized with some squinting and fuzz-factor. Not this.
Excessive reliance on TA causes panic when these magical lines fail. Observe that some allegedly strong-hands HODLers went nuts here 11 days ago, gripped by fear and disbelief at $18k and below. They were not newbies, but LTH who have been through multiple previous bear cycles. Magical TA lines
backfire.
The single most reliable strong-hands HODLer whom I personally know has
never ascribed any special predictive significance to 200 WMA. I now understand that that is not a coincidence!
I see this as an opportunity to refocus on Bitcoin’s fundamental value.
“Past performance does not guarantee future results.” Only long-term value fundamentals can guide rational expectations of long-term future results.
* I myself previously believed in 200 WMA, but only as a Schelling point: A self-fulfilling prophecy of a Bitcoin Bottom, from both the bid side and the ask side. In that sense, I did expect it to have some high-level intelligence—or maybe, high-level human unintelligence. My theory was empirically wrong. When my theories are empirically wrong, I adjust to reality rather than attempting to distort reality to fit my theory.