Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Almost every little 'bobblehead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.
So true. I'd be neutral right now about a return to $25K-$30K vs a drop to $10K-$15K, but there is too much confidence that price is going to already drop significantly lower. Baring in mind since 2021 approximately 50% of holders were new to Bitcoin in the past year, so a lot of the twitter sentiment comes from newbies to put it simply. That fact that WO readers think the bottom is in is no surprise to me.
Also, I don't think the 200-Week MA is "dead". Not yet anyway. Just visit the link, or see the attached screenshot. It has been crossed, but only barely, which has happened a few times in the past. If the price picks up from here, it will just be another deep blue dot touching the 200-WMA on the chart. It all depends on where the price goes next. And even if a deep and long dip eventually "kills" it, it doesn't mean much, really. MA indicators do not contain some high-level intelligence that can tell us something very useful when breached. They are just averages of price data.
JMHO.
JMHO.
I forgot this graph only shows the dots each month, as opposed to each week. If anything it'd make more sense to look at the 50 Month MA (~217 Weeks) if we're looking at monthly changes. Also because Bitcoin has never closed below this Monthly MA, as opposed to 200WMA which price has closed below numerous times (repeatedly in 2015 for example). Personally I'm keeping my eye on the 50 Month MA @ $21.3K as price has already flirted with this level a few times in the past week. I also don't think a close below it would be catastrophic, as long as it's within around 5% of it, ie >$20K. Only one more day to go...