On the one hand, you are right about Italy, on the other hand, as we see from the Nations League tournament, everything depends on the motivation and attitude of the teams. If the teams are not too interested in the tournament, then there are no favorites or outsiders and everyone has a chance. Given that this World Cup will be held in the middle of the season, I don't know how this will affect the motivation of the teams.
Different regions of the planet have a different history of priorities in sports. I don't remember non-Asian Go world champions or any non-US baseball super teams.
This issue is being raised again and again. IMO, we should not give preference to club cricket over international cricket. If the clubs are having that much problem with the world cup being scheduled during the season, then the FIFA should move towards cancelling the club competitions for this year. How dare these guys can ask FIFA to reschedule the world cup? COVID caused a lot of scheduling issues and clubs should understand that. If they can't adjust their calendar, then they can go ahead with the matches, albeit without the international players.