I like my TA with a dose of empiricism or at least plausible structural theory. The *only* justification for treating the cross-over on bitcoinwisdom as a signal, as opposed to any other pair of moving averages, is the mere fact that it is the default on the 1 week chart on bitcoinwisdom. Well, I'm sorry, but that's not a rational basis for a trading strategy. We should ask the proprietor to randomly perturb the default periods on the moving averages.
What should we set the EMA to?
Sunny?
Optimistic?
How can it be unempirical. It is two settings to judge a period.
Fine, change the settings until it draws a story that fits your point of view. Highly scientific.
Those default settings do a good job describing the times we have had a bearish market, so when they cross its probable that's where we'll be again.
IRCC, for Risto, the 4 hour EMA is one of his significant buy/sell signals (I recall him saying something along the lines of "follow this and you should be rich")...but he's misguided too?
It's sad because people will trade on such a pathetic excuse for a rationalization, thinking it is driven by some deep and compelling model, when in fact they are just hanging their emotions on a scary picture. It's sad because most of them will lose bitcoin as a result (perhaps not as a result of selling at that specific time, but almost certainly as a result of selling low and buying high), contributing to the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few skilled but, in all too many cases, sociopathic persons.
Yes, it's really sad that people use the tools at their disposable to inform their decision making.
As for scary pictures. I notice there's a lot of pictures used here to describe bright, cheery scenarios, which could be as equally baseless.
Pretty much every indicator that shows we are having a bad time you dismiss --- each that predicts optimism you embrace: this seems highly unscientific.
But hey, I need strong medication
