Agriculture fertilizer in general is undervalued because of disruption from many factors not just this war.  There is greater world GDP growth, growing populations and development of economies away from an agrarian self sufficiency economicy in terms of food more supply will be needed from those with land capable of mass production.   Russia trying to bully a nearby country into its cartel influence for money making and power advantage is not out of character.    The bigger problem might be global warming or altering weather patterns, this will alter current food production and require new land to be found and enriched.