Peter R at al, before you go on with this nonsense direction of thinking about arbitrary charts which have no basis in reality like they came from a child with an Etch-A-Sketch (not ad hominem to Trolololo, just trying to color my point with drama), and since I know you try to be based in data and fact checking, I suggest you try to find even one example in this history of man where the adoption accelerated after it was evidently slowing. And remember I am talking about rate of growth, not the nominal size of growth. The nominal size is getting larger and huge, and this will make us feel like the growth is growing, because humans can't differentiate between slowing rate and larger nominals.
You won't find it. Larger things don't suddenly change adoption curves, because the inertia is ingrained structure that provided the very high adoption rate in the beginning.
I am very confident because I have history and rationality on my side.
You have been FA trumpeting that we are visiting lower lows in the 300's and 200's.
I agree with you, and probability of that is bigger than the fractal I posted. 2 or 3 times bigger at least.
But markets are irrational.
And FA is not enough.
FA, TA (& fractals), market sentiment... all them help, but none of them is perfect. Joining them together gives you a better picture. That's all.
Anyhow, the big picture is that bitcoin's value on the long term will be huge or zero.
Is the trend is your friend, bitcoin longterm log trend is still my lover.
For me, it's worse to lose the next choochoo than lose the fiat (having invested the fiat I don't mind to lose).
The "child chart" I posted helps to visualize which is the timeframe, and the order of magnitude of the price, in case we repeat the superbubble of 2010; because future log trends are difficult to visualize for most of the people.
I consider R Peter's Metcalfe's bitcoin fit chart much more interesting than mine, and we should resume in that direction.
The real value is in correctly discerning probabilities.
I agree with that!
Risto does that very well.
What are the probabilities you discern for each scenario??
Edit: Your post
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg6049626#msg6049626 answers my question.