Finally, after 8 months of waiting we have a dead cat bounce! And all this because of the "good news" of some ponzis paying fiat debt and getting back their BTC collateral. Once again the market is irrational. These ponzis are specialized at coordinated BTC shorting to give the clients the proper yield in BTC. My guess is that they will wait for the cat to stall somewhere in the 26K-35K range, to resume the shorting.

The real question is will this bear market finish until the next halving or this time it will be different. I don't know how much BTC collateral all these ponzis have in total, but it seems enough to defend any short position even if there are not many BTC left on the spot exchanges. All this is of course just a speculation for the future, but it's been a 100% reality in the last 8 months. In this case the price will move something like this in the next 2.5 years: 17.5K->35K->20K->25K->15K (the last bottom might be around 12K or lower)->20K->30K->20K->42K. And then hopefully some good news will boost the next 2025 bull run to a brief last ATH in the 168K area (just a SOMA number just like every other). This is the optimistic version. I don't want to speculate what will happen if these ponzis hold the price below the last ATH after 2025. It would be very dissapointing indeed.