Price speculation is great, two points, however:

1. Every new cycle is different.
2. We are due for a large bounce, perhaps, but it could be a long "flat" instead (maybe at a small upward angle to stay close to 200WMA).
3. BIS says to banks that 1% in bitcoin (and other stuff) is OK. I believe that they have up to 5% for gold. Gold is at 10-12 tril. 1/5 of gold is 2-2.4 tril or 100-120K for btc (or 50-60K if bitcoin is 50% of the complex). Novogratz also mentioned something along the lines that current bitcoin and etc infrastructure can support 2tril valuation.
4. It is likely that we would have a front-running situation, like in 2019, but maybe even more amplified.
5. Some hodlers might take money off the table at 50-60K just because by then they would be exhausted and fear yet another top at those prices.

Conclusion: there are no most likely path, but $100K-180K appears most likely with a distinct possibility of something worse (like 60K).
however, the latter would probably mean much milder bottoming process.