Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: [ 2 april addresses chart ] A BITCOIN PRICE THEORY
by
gbianchi
on 03/04/2014, 21:26:30 UTC
so based on your active addresses growth, the question becomes what will the relationship be going forward.  Should we use zipfs law, metcalfs law, or the fit that you've constructed in the thread?

as i understand it, zipfs law basically has price growth growing in a linear relation to user adoption which is fairly conservative.  Using your active address chart, we get a prices

Date          Number of act adr.         Price/Coin
1/1/2016    10,105,263                   $3,115.79
1/1/2018    42,548,476                    $13,119.11
1/1/2020    179,151,479                $55,238.37
1/1/2022    754,322,020                $232,582.62
1/1/2024    3,176,092,716              $979,295.25
1/1/2026    13,373,021,965             $4,123,348.44


please read the first post, where I describe in detail my theory.