there is a third option too which is bitcoin goes up and down like many times before.
we could see $25k and a struggle to break that.
then we could see price fall down to $20k again and struggle to break that too.
then we see rise again to $25k to repeat the same thing.
if we are to invest in a short period of time, then I agree with your opinion, We must be observant in predicting the price of bitcoin in a short time to make a profit.
but in my opinion the price of bitcoin in the next few months will continue in the range of 20k to 25k.