For starters ETH has half the market cap of Bitcoin
Which makes it
extremely overpriced relative to BTC. Anything over 1% of the BTC market cap is overvalued for ETH (there's a years old well argued article explaining the potential of a utility token lies at least 2 orders of manitude below that of a store of value). This doesnt even take the governance issues around ETH in considerstion yet.
ETH has been extremely overvalued for years relative to BTC (admittedly so have most things).
If you calculate the merge then there will only be approx 120M tokens (maybe more will get burnt)
ETH. 120M * 1500 = 180B value
BTC. 21M * 20000 = 420B value
These should be equal because both have fixed amount of tokens. Ethereum pre-merge has infinity amount of tokens making it's true value 0 like fiat.
Which means ETH with fixed token amount is underpriced and should be around $3500 after the merge
I dont think you understand what I say.
Im not questioning the calculation of current market cup.
Just saying that this implies extreme current relative overvaluation of ETH even under the most positive of assumptions.