Well WatChe, it is not easy to say what time is the best time to get into bitcoin, and surely it would seem that our having prices right around the 200-week moving average would be a good time to get in and to establish a position; however, part of the problem remains that it can take quite a long time to establish a reasonable position into bitcoin unless you are already a mature investor with other assets, then the bitcoin newbie could merely establish a strategy of reallocating into bitcoin...

Mature investors will sometimes be nervous about employing any kind of straight reallocation into bitcoin, so sometimes instead they will merely divert new cash to be invested into the new asset (in this case bitcoin) until the allocation target levels are reached... so if we are in the bottom and we can stay here for a while, then it will surely end up being a great time to invest, but we could either experience a fake out run upwards or even a real run upwards, and then sometimes the new investor could get nervous and make some bad moves in terms of chasing the BTC price up.. but still it seems that mostly I agree with you that it is difficult to paint scenarios in which getting in now would be a bad thing.

The newbie without very much cash will likely be more frustrated by getting into bitcoin now, but newbies have to work with what they got in terms of figuring out how aggressive that they can be and also maybe if they can figure out ways to generate cash or extra cashflow to be able to put into BTC... which of course, I love DCA, but sometimes there can be some value to lump sum invest and maybe to have some reserves to buy on dips, too.