Let me be clear, even considering that you, as a biased user, wont accept this.
You can talk about logic and motives when it comes to any other country except Russia. They are capable of any crazy stuff because they can and they get away with it. If in 2008 the civilized World gave a tough rebuff in response to the invasion of Georgia, you didn't even know what Crimea is.
Now here, the pro-Kremlin telegram channel with a huge number of subscribers reflects in early June what MI6 would do with British-supplied MLRS in Ukraine. It's sick already but quite fine for russians. So one of their targets as per this channel should be Olenivka. Since you're an expert in russia I hope you know that the translation from "they may" to russian is "we will". Why? No one knows, because they can.

NOw lemme ask how you end up spreading your bullshit here for literally 8 people? Your no good at least for Reddit or Alexa stats with impressive digits of this forum is enough to master russian budgets?