Just put into your mind if you are a newbie, "If it's too good to be true, it isn't true".
You read my mind brother. 
After reading the OP's post that's the first thing that comes to my mind.
But some of his points are true. You will have to be lucky enough to be able to get that lucky coin that will moon. I've seen it and experienced it but didn't really make me a millionaire though. I can say the return was too much for a bounty.
3 months of supporting them through a signature campaign back in the ICO hype and I didn't even have the slightest clue it could pump that hard.
I was lucky. At the right project at the right time. I sold it all and gave my wife an almost heavenly life.