Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Will that trend continue?

Personally, I believe that the trend is going to continue until it stops continuing.

I think BTC is moving towards 18000$ again because this pattern is of a rising wedge If BTC consolidates its position at $18,000 and we hear good news about the global economy so this will be the bottom, otherwise the next target may be $13,000 to $12,500.

So largely you seem to be suggesting down before up, and any amount of UP would be limited by around $25k-ish at the most - or the BTC price would be breaking above the wedge?

If the price breaks the wedge from the upside and then stays up until the end of the day, the rising wedge will be broken, Then it will depend on the trend line whether BTC can break it or not. Meanwhile, the rest of the patterns are formed and broken.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 08:03:59 AM

Some others have suggested that we could get some UP before down, which could take us to $30k and potentially a bit beyond $30k before breaking back down.. and I suppose that would be the medium bullish scenario.

There are some outlier more bullish scenario proclaimers who are suggesting the possibility of a break out that would be similar to 2019 - so in that regard we could end up getting well into the $40ks in such a scenario and even touch upon $50ks... and even in a 2019-like scenario we did end up getting a break back back down into the $7ks in late 2019 - and I would not even count the March 2020 break down to $3,850 as being part of the breaking back down.

It is also possible if the trendline breaks which is currently at $27000 then BTC will stop between $30000 to $32000 as there is resistance but I don't think it's strong because after retesting the trendline The resistance will weaken due to the bullish scenario.
If that is the case then the scenario you presented with $40,000 and $50,000 may be possible.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 08:03:59 AM

Surely here we have some looming macro circumstances that could cause a quite extensive breaking down of BTC prices after the November 2022 election or might not happen until early 2023- which breakdown might not feel as bad if we could at least get UP first.. then at least in those cases, we might not necessarily have to have another break below the 200-week moving average for very extended periods of time (maybe for a week or two at most), and I anticipate our 200-week moving average will be getting into the mid $25ks and even approaching $26k by February 2023.. so if we get another 25%-ish break below the 200-week moving average, that will take us close to $20k again.. and surely that seems like a scary scenario that is not totally outside of the realm of possibilities... I just hate having to rely too much on macro factors, even though we have seen that bitcoin can end up being quite liquid during times of crisis that have been referred to as liquidity events - and even though I don't really buy any of this correlation bullshit when it applies to either bitcoin as a long term investment or even that there are likely going to be various times in the near future that bitcoin is going to to a wee widdow bouncing up - whether that is 3x, 5x, 8x 10x or more before it goes back to playing along with the short-term correlation narrative that makes so many normies (traditional financial analyzers) feel better to act as if it is correlated in their little fantasy world.

You are right if BTC comes back down from mid 40000$ or 50000$ it won't be that bad because it is human psychology and almost everyone will have this in mind it is a small correction.

While the reality is that one important piece of news can change the entire direction of the market, whether we agree with it or not.

In the last few days, the news about the recession has been active, A slight rally in prices on news of oil supply cuts, And the Fed's intention to raise interest rates by 0.50% in September is not good news for BTC.