Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: so btc value is finished?
by
Easy2Mine
on 05/04/2014, 07:07:43 UTC
Bitcoin will be around 200 soon, there are better coins now. Bitcoin has no advantage other than being the first

Bitcoin may not be the best, and it's only advantage may be that it was first, but in reality that is a HUGE, HUUUUGGEEE advantage. Probably the biggest advantage you can have. To be more clear, it's actually not the fact that it came first that gives it an advantage, but rather the fact that it currently is the most popular by far (because it gained popularity before others did). This is why Facebook is so much more popular than Google+. It is why YouTube is more popular than Vimeo. The thing that becomes more popular first tends to stay the most popular by far. These trends can even be (and often are) mathematically modeled using graphs of social networks.

Consider a graph with nodes and edges, where each node represents a cryptocurrency user and each edge represents a transaction between two users. Connected nodes want to be using the same cryptocurrency, otherwise they can't trade with each other. Each node has a rule that it will adopt the cryptocurrency that is used by more than a certain percent (let's say 50%) of its connected nodes. You can see how if the majority of the nodes use bitcoin, the phenomenon will spread and almost everybody will use it. In order to change that and have everybody use, say Litecoin, you need to have enough people adopt Litecoin such that the majority of every node's neighboring nodes adopted litecoin. It is difficult to explain this without drawing it, but hopefully you get my main point: inertia is powerful, and bitcoin still has a TON of it.

Kevin is totally right, let me put it in another way.
Not everyone is a nerd here, we have to keep things simple for the majority to understand it.
With technology, it is not always the best systems that survives.
Look at
VHS (worst video system of all 3)
Betamax (second best video system)
Video2000 (best videosystem)
and who survived, its all about adoption.
At the end VHS survive, the best system dropped out before the other systems.