Honestly, betting on El Salvador to fight against the U.S. and EU wanting to ban Bitcoin-related projects from GitHub is one of the worse bets I've seen.
They don't have a lot to work with / to leverage. It's a tiny nation and their adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender is mostly symbolic; it shows what's possible, but it doesn't give Bitcoin more value, more legitimacy or protection from large states' attacks.
Yeah it's silly, and we already have examples of some countries like China banning Bitcoin (several times) without much resistance.
I think that other countries won't ban Bitcoin directly yet, at least not until they release their own CBDC projects, but they can slowly start to increase pressure on exchanges, wallets, developers, miners, etc.
It's obvious they want to have full surveillance and tracking in near future, so anything related with privacy is now under attack.
Hear me out: arrival of CBDCs, shutdown of centralized exchanges and simultaneously implementation of L1 privacy changes to the Bitcoin protocol. Bitcoin will be the
obvious choice for... literally anyone.
And people will be incentivized to actually use it as a medium of exchange to escape the totalitarian nature of CBDC and avoid going through buying/selling 'hassle' on DEX's.
People will be incentivized to further get involved if (to get back on topic) centralized services were to start banning Bitcoin- and crypto-related stuff, by spinning up own nodes, own Git mirrors and whatever other tech we might have moved to until then.
More decentralized infrastructure is going to make Bitcoin stronger than ever, totally destroying the dreams of anyone attempting to shut it down by such measures.
I have considered the scenario in which CEXes are banned, it's possible, but think about it, there would be enormous backlash.
I believe the most realistic scenario, is the one where they keep the CEXes, keep adding KYC/AML restrictions, and keep getting all the taxed money from trading. There is no other way for them if they want to keep the facade of not being fully totalitarian, which is the key here. Western governments don't want to be perceived as totalitarian, as they do in totalitarian clusterfucks like China or Russia. I don't see a full ban on crypto unless BTC poses a massive systemic risk to the reign of the USD, which right now I don't see it, since it basically follows the SP500. If USD ever decouples from the SP500, and people start putting their savings on BTC more than they do on the stock market, that is where they may just fully ban the stuff.
At that point BTC will be used as cash, but forget about buying property or anything like that, they will not allow it. So your best bet would be moving somewhere where they get away with not banning it.