Don't believe the hype...
it is very clear, 90% of them will just throw their bitcoins in a bear market because they have waited long enough for the bitcoin assets they have.
I think institutions like Fortress will need to buy more claims personally in order to average into further to their long-term investment, as they started acquiring them from creditors in March 2021 when price was at $60+ for a 20% discount. So they started buying at around $40K to $50K thinking they were buying a decent discount, while now price is half that. Are they really going to sell for a 50% loss is the question here.
I also think 90% of them already sold their claims on over a year ago, so I agree with you to some degree. But not convinced the likes of Fortress are going to sell their coins at half price after waiting a year to receive them, more likely they and buy more claims at lower prices after the significant error or acquiring them at the top of the bull market. We still have no idea how many claims have already been sold, but I imagine most.
I know that I sold some BTC around $40K that I expect to get back from mtgox. It's quite possible that I will hold onto the BTC I get from gox and maybe even buy more if the price dips again. Saying that people will all sell might not be accurate. A good point about the big boys using this opportunity to scoop BTC also. That may make the price rise...
I would disagree that 90% of mtgox depositors have already sold their claims. I think the actual number is probably closer to 5%, but that's just my guess.
In any event, I still haven't received any news that BTC is being distributed, and still have no idea where this rumor that everyone was getting their BTC back today came from.