These days news about Mt Gox releasing of funds to its creditors is spreading on Twitter and seems very alarming to the BTC price action in coming days, as BTC price has not yet gained any momentum towards 28k which most of the so-called technical analysts predicted. I think we are most likely to hit <15k BTC in the coming days due to the release of almost 140k BTC from Mt gox.
If you search for the #mtgox at Twitter you will see how tense is the situation:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mtgox&src=typed_queryThere is this report by BRL;
https://twitter.com/lab_blockchain/status/1557330341139972104There were 22,560 creditors share total claims of $17 billion with an average claim of ~39btc. Do you think they are going to hold it ?
This is scary not only because so much money is coming into the market but also because most of this money will be immediately realised into fiat because it's of people who have been waiting for it since long. These people would immediately convert all the btc into Fiat in order to use it for their purposes, infact most of the people won't even keep it in btc or central exchanges anymore. So if this supply comes to market at the price point you can easily expect 10-12k btc.
I also think that would be the case. I'm assuming that BTC will dump dive even the claims release is partial and not everyone will get their btc at the same time. The upcoming selling pressure will be big and I think traders are selling out for them to be saved for the expected dump. I personally think that we can hit 15k atleast and 8k at worst if the support can't handle the selling pressure.
How the heck can 137k BTC crash BTC price back to 10-12k price or 15k at least or 8k at worst? I hate to repeat myself since I already made a post about this but did you know how much BTC's 24h trading volume at? 1,600,000 BTC right now and you think 137k BTC which is only at 8.5% for 1 day could crash BTC price to -50% for the 10-12k price? Or at -25% for 15k at least or -60% for 8k at worst?
It's interesting as I've heard a lot of FUD surrounding the release of these funds in recent days. Not because re-distributing thousands of Bitcoins wouldn't be bearish for the market, but instead news that isn't backed by facts or confirmed by reputable sources - hence FUD, rather than facts. It seems for now price has responded to these inaccuracies accordingly with some panic selling occurring, no doubt as intended.
Elsewhere I heard only a very small portion of funds were being released to creditors, those that opted for the "early lump sum" as opposed to the full amount, as documented by news sources. The reality is, we probably won't know when these funds are distributed until they are in the wallets of the creditors. Now we are hearing of
payments coming in instalments, with again the situation dramatically changing.
Don't believe the hype...
it is very clear, 90% of them will just throw their bitcoins in a bear market because they have waited long enough for the bitcoin assets they have.
I think institutions like Fortress will need to buy more claims personally in order to average into further to their long-term investment, as they started acquiring them from creditors in March 2021 when price was at $60+ for a 20% discount. So they started buying at around $40K to $50K thinking they were buying a decent discount, while now price is half that. Are they really going to sell for a 50% loss is the question here.
I also think 90% of them already sold their claims on over a year ago, so I agree with you to some degree. But not convinced the likes of Fortress are going to sell their coins at half price after waiting a year to receive them, more likely they and buy more claims at lower prices after the significant error or acquiring them at the top of the bull market. We still have no idea how many claims have already been sold, but I imagine most.
Even if it were true, the amount isn't that much, enough for everyone to make it like a very big deal, saying it crashes BTC to half of its price and such. I just don't get why everyone keeps saying that. Follow the same narrative everywhere without even checking the BTC's 24h trading volume to get a sense. Sure, I also think it'll hurt the BTC price if they release it in one goes but not as much hurt as everyone thought.
Just feel weird all of a sudden. Like I was talking to a bunch of bots. Or people's spam posts to meet their signature campaign? Cause it's easier to say and repeat over the same thing. Your post makes me feel a bit more real.