I've been speculating a lot lately especially about what might happen when BTC150k compensation is released to MtGox victims. What calms me down a bit is (in my mind) they're not going back to the spot market to make a big dump. To be sure each of them has a large number of bitcoins and worries it will be a problem a second time when they transfer everything to a centralized entity that is more bureaucratic than in previous years.