So far 2x has worked because of the pace of mass adoption. Judging by some metrics that can be found in glassnode, there is way more than 2x increase of demand each year. The last 10 months were an exception of course, but this can't invalidate the channel. At least not yet. May be after the next halving this will be confirmed. But I have some hope that it won't. The reason is that the invalidation of this model would mean that the demand is losing pace because of the high levels of mass adoption, say above 75%. However, this is not the case. I doubt that more than 5% of the world population holds BTC. So, there is still plenty of room for growth. The current crisis has other origins and it is a matter of several months to 2 years max to end. My expectations are that in 1 year max BTC will return to the lower line of the 2x channel. After the halving I hope BTC will enter it and score a new ATH > 100K.
I agree with your post in general. But one of my points still stands. This chart does not just hinge on the value and adoption of bitcoin, but also the strength of the USD.
Things going on with the dollar can obliterate this channel in either direction. You could make a case that BTC trying to exit the bottom of the channel now has corresponded fairly exactly with the switch of the FED to raising interest rates and thereby strengthening the dollar, which is making the charts of most other liquid assets do exactly what BTC is doing. What the FED seems to be trying to do is counteract the effects of inflation they caused by so much money creation over the recent term. But this is a losing battle, and obviously there may (will in my opinion) come a point when the value of BTC/USD explodes through the top of that channel like an active volcano (ES reference intended).