Great, another doomsday newbie who's come here 'save' everyone from themselves and to tell everyone what's what with bitcoin...
I didn't say anything about Bitcoin itself - I said the mining numbers don't work.
I don't see anybody disputing me with some actual numbers.
What I see are people acting just like all the people I talk to on other forums - who think that because Mt. Gox was a disaster - that all of Bitcoin is a disaster.
It's the same mentality just coming from a different direction.
What I see are people who act just like the "investors" I've dealt with over the years who think that Apple stock , or Google stock, or Pets Online whatever stock - will go to $1000 a share, or the people who think that gold will go to $10,000 an ounce.
Their numbers only work when you apply a very high bullshit hope and change factor. And that shit doesn't work in the real world.
I said mining doesn't seem to be worth it - if YOU actually have to absorb ALL of the costs - unless the machine pays itself off in 30 or maybe 45 days - tops. If it goes longer than that - the difficulty increase and NOW - the IRS coming in and wanting to take capital gains taxes - is going to make it a money loser.
Every single miner asic company I've seen - is pricing their machines so high that the buyers will pretty much never get ROI on them.
Prove me wrong - show me the numbers. I'm fully willing to admit I'm wrong on this - but you're going to have to prove it.
Ok, a bit harsh with my newbie comment, apologies. It's not all doom though. If you watch the hardware and group buy forums then you learn to get a heads up as to what miners are about to be released. It's probably wise to steer clear from batch 1s. But if you jump in early with a batch 2 or 3 when the miner price is dropping, then you can get hardware that will ROI. There are plenty of good ROI calculators that take into account electricity and insanely increasing difficulty. I used
3-4 weeks ago to see if I would make any profit on 6 x ant S1s and the numbers looked OK. Now I have nearly 4 coins and expect to earn a few more at least. So it's not impossible, you just have to watch what's going on a lot...
[edit] I'm hoping for a significant price drop on the S2 future batches - the current numbers plugged into the calculator I mentioned don't work - you are correct on that...