Looks like i have some reading to do, thanks for your linked posts.

I do think that bitcoin-like exchange of assets represents the future of transactions, however, it is not what makes Bitcoin valuable, primarily due to the very things you bring up. The masses simply won't use it and have no incentive or even easy way to do so.

Bitcoin will always have its primary source of value be in a speculative asset, my opinion here is strongly on the word ALWAYS right now. Again, primarily for reasons you outline. Customers want convenience and speed with their transactions, not just rage-against-the-machine motivations.  

Do we really think that banks won't respond to the Bitcoin phenomenon of instantaneous, secure, low-cost transfers? Nobody that has a reasonable point of view seriously believes that current systems won't respond to the features that bitcoin provides. Yes it will probably include trusted services, but as you have pointed out Bitcoin cannot accomplish any sort of convenience without trusted services, so Bitcoin enthusiasts are again delusional thinking these services are the killer features of Bitcoin.

The ONLY reason Bitcoin has the value it has is because of its scarcity and its untouchable nature. It is the first of its kind and will likely have serious value 50 years from now precluding world war. I don't think anything about Bitcoin tells me it would survive a world war.

There will be some alt-coins that will survive, but again not because they present any sort of transaction-like competitive advantages. Traditional banks will win this transaction war, there is no doubt in my mind that Bitcoin will not win a transaction war. Banks, PayPals, Amazons, Apples all won't sit idly and watch crypto-like currencies eat into their mainstream revenue. In five years, transactions for banks will be good-enough that the average consumer moving into bitcoin won't make sense for their financial systems will be good enough.

Bitcoin will only become mainstream when everyone owns one simply to hedge against their own countries currency, not because they want to buy something fast with it (the exceptions would be niche purchasers like Porn).

So I buy Bitcoin only as a speculative play. I do like its transaction capabilities, I have bought a lot of stuff with Bitcoin, but only because I chose purchasing stuff over selling to reduce my holdings risk.  I have had enough conversations with "normal" people that I know these txn features have limited drawing power. If I ever have had a friend buy a Bitcoin, it has only been because I created a small glimmer in their eye that it might be worth $10k some day.

Bitcoin does not need mainstream adoption, it doesn't need even a fraction of the general population to be wildly valuable. Bitcoin will grow on greed and speculation alone for a long time to come. It is enough for penny stocks, internet boom 1.0, precious metals, and countless other speculative assets, it will be enough for Bitcoin. Transactions only serve as the ultimate excuse for governments to allow it to live. Transactions are only the secret protection that allows Bitcoin to live wave after wave of speculative bubble.

Greed and speculation alone are enough to propel Bitcoin to 250 billion dollars or more. It has happened to countless stocks in companies that hit the speculative mother load, how many people do I know that own Apple stock, or Microsoft, or Cisco, or GE. In all reality very few of my entire circle own any stocks via direct brokerage purchase. Maybe a lot via their 401k or their mutal fund, but they wouldn't even know if those investements used any shares of Apple. Bitcoin will be no different, worth 500 billion and you may know 10 people that own them.