A fight against Thurman would be great, and I think Thurman will win and that would make him one of the top contenders to fight the champion. Imagine, if the fight of Spence vs Crawford will not happen, then we can still see Thurman fighting one of them if the promoter will agree.
I'd say it's 50/50
Thurman lose against Pacquiao, but Ugas won. Ugas lose against Porter, but Thurman won.
I think the lose from Spence before will giving Ugas a good lesson because this is the first time he got KO'ed and would make him to improve his chin. However if the fight will happen, it's not surprised if Thurman will be favorite because he have better record.
Yes, it will be a great match and could be 50/50 fight. I'm seeing a Danny Garcia type fight for Thurman, which he edged when they fought by a Split decision, but it was very close that there are fans who think that Garcia won that fight.
However, that was during Thurman's time, haven't been injured and still undefeated. He did make a comeback against a ballooned 140 lbs in Barrios and fought at 147 lbs. So Ugas might posed a different challenge if ever this two square in the ring and it could go to distance.