I think it is more likely that an existing Bitcoin exchange will become a government licensed bank rather than the other way around.
do you ever think mtgox would go this route?
I think it is possible that any of the exchanges could do this, but it takes A LOT of money.
At this time, I doubt any of the exchanges have enough money to do this.
My problem with that is that the system is somewhat rigged. I believe that no matter if an exchange or a bitcoin bank did meet the qualifications it still would be denied... they are not going to allow Mt.Gox or Flexcoin to become an "FDIC member bank"