Post
Topic
Board Economics
Merits 8 from 4 users
Topic OP
Take shelter, a storm is coming in October.
by
Poker Player
on 02/10/2022, 19:28:53 UTC
⭐ Merited by pooya87 (4) ,vapourminer (2) ,Fivestar4everMVP (1) ,Lucius (1)
The current economic situation is the most similar to the 2007 crisis since Bitcoin was created, but well into October, which is a traditionally bad month for the market, we seem to be going from bad to worse.

Let's recap.

1) This week the BoE had to intervene to save pensions:

Pension fund panic led to Bank of England’s emergency intervention: Here’s what you need to know

"LONDON – The Bank of England launched a historic intervention to stabilize the U.K. economy, announcing a two-week purchase program for long-dated bonds and delaying its planned gilt sales until the end of October.

The move came after a massive sell-off in U.K. government bonds — known as “gilts” — following the new government’s fiscal policy announcements Friday. The policies included large swathes of unfunded tax cuts that have drawn global criticism, and also saw the pound fall to an all-time low against the dollar on Monday
."

2) There are growing rumors of a major European bank going banrupt. Two are the main candidates:

Credit Suisse Is in Deep Trouble

"The No. 2 Swiss bank and one of the largest banks in the world is in deep trouble and is currently fighting for its survival. A negative outcome is likely to cause a shock similar to that caused by the bankruptcy of the U.S. bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008. This event triggered one of the most serious financial and economic crises since the Great Depression."

'Trading Like a Lehman Moment’ — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Suffer From Distressed Valuations as the Banks’ Credit Default Insurance Nears 2008 Levels

3) China strikes back against the dollar:

Exclusive: China's state banks told to stock up for yuan intervention

"HONG KONG, Sept 29 (Reuters) - China's central bank has asked major state-owned banks to be prepared to sell dollars for the local unit in offshore markets as it steps up efforts to stem the yuan's descent, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.

State banks were told to ask their offshore branches, including those based in Hong Kong, New York and London, to review their holdings of the offshore yuan and ensure U.S. dollar reserves are ready to be deployed, three of the sources, who declined to be identified, told Reuters.

The simultaneous selling of dollars and buying of yuan could put a floor under the Chinese currency, which has lost more than 11% to the dollar so far this year and looks set for its biggest annual loss since 1994, when China unified its official and market rates.

The scale of this round of dollar selling to defend the weakening yuan will be rather big, one of the sources said.
"

4)Probably related to this point above, and others, there is an emergency Fed meeting tomorrow.

Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022

5)The war in Ukraine continues, with veiled threats from Russia to use nuclear weapons and private response at the highest level from the US saying that if that happens they will respond.

I am opening this thread so that we can comment on these and other issues that will happen in October.