during the bull markets when bitcoin's putting in the big green candles and uber drivers telling you about the latest meme coins that are the point where there's a maximum financial risk and our brains are biased in the opposite direction because our recent memory bias is saying that risk equals greater returns all the

risks that we've taken in the past six
months have panned out well and
we expect that to continue in the future
the same is true of bear markets where
our recent memory bias suggests that any
risks that we take will not be financially rewarded further risk equals further ruin

and this creates a skewed cognitive bias
where our perception of risk actually
differs from the real risk during market
cycles but any time during a bull market
there will be people posted on Twitter
and in the news saying that bitcoin is
going to go to the moon and there's
going to be a 5x or a 10x from here and
the same people will be telling you in
bear markets that bitcoin is going to
retrace to previous levels whether that

be 10k or 3k or it's going to zero.