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December is only 2 months away, if the political will to buy RU gas will build up come winter but now Germany will be forced to buy RU gas through Ukraine, will you admit then that you were wrong in your assessment and that it definitely would've been much easier if Germany could arrange for deliveries through NS directly without involving UA?
But then again your covered yourself nicely with assertion of RU acting in irrational manner. That's a nice cover to literally explain any and all possible actions that disadvantage RU as doing of RU itself...
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You need to read more carefully - in what you or I would think is irrational. The Mafia world has its own rules.
No, if Germany buys gas from RF through any means that Adolf Putin is desperate enough to sell gas to EU - nothing else - it makes no difference to the point.
If Ukraine falls under the influence of the Orcs Adolf holds the key, if not Ukraine is a partner in the EU. In any of those cases, Germany should have learnt the lesson and have a plan B in the future to avoid being blackmailed by RF or, if it really should come to it in a million years, by Ukraine.
Germany has made a mistake when appreciating the real control and reliability of Adolf Putin as a commercial partner. They should know better in the future, even if they decide to keep using cheap RF gas, they will need the plan B and a progressive energetic transition (which is anyway needed).
"Adolf Putin is desperate enough to sell gas to EU" so Putin would be desperate to sell gas and Germany would help him out by buying it, because the rules of the mafia world? And knowing that beforehand, he blows up his own direct pipeline to Germany so they'd have to ask permission and pay Ukraine or Poland to transfer more gas to Germany? Did i understand you correctly?
As far as US pushing EU to diversify its energy resources from RU, now you're starting to open up your eyes, think macro level and ask
very dangerous questions. Careful, real world is not pretty and dangerous questions might lead to disillusionment and why everyone cares about Ukraine all of a sudden.
April 2008
Dude, you like to pose as as someone who can see things that others cannot - hate to break it to you: The US policy is very transparent, the German position on regards to it is known since ages you are just stating stuff that everyone knows
years if not decades ago . Trump, who is a egomaniac even said it out loud: US does not like Germany to be a commercial partner of the RF while they depend on US for defence against them.
Your level of "analysis" is equivalent to reading an 8 year old newspaper.
Now, you go back and read all the reasons why an RF attack is very likely (payback for EU help to Ukraine, rules of Mafia) and an US attack is very unlikely (basically an act of war to one of the few allies they have left) and try to make your case.