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You're too serious for a contest like this.
I don't think everyone is gonna analyze too much for the prediction contest, they are just thinking maybe of a different spread price with around 500$-1,000$. Take it easy for the prediction contest.
Even you put a lot effort for analysis not gonna to make you have high chance of winning.
I know the contest is just for fun, so it doesn't need to be taken seriously but for me if there is still a long time to give price predictions it's not a problem for me to analyze the price, maybe some people think like that to guess the price but I'm sure there are some of them to analysis even though it was not a hard effort but the analysis they needed.
Well for me the chances are high or not it doesn't matter the important thing I've tried in the analysis.
Although I am not an expert in analysis, but I use my skills in prediction in this contest, but not completely I will analyze, no, I only need when there is time to do it.