It goes without saying, or should, that I am certainly going to be wrong about some things.  Certainly I'll assign inordinate weight to some factors, and neglect other important factors out of ignorance.

I've recently come across testimony of Russian side sources who've been on-the-ground, seem credible, and have described some real problems.  In a nutshell, the opposition forces are increasingly NATO and have opened up the tap on Western intel sources data (which seems in no small part to be network/satellite related.)

Again, and especially in light of the Nordstream sabotage, I would be very inclined to take this thing into space if I were the Russians.  Perhaps Musk has 'turned into a Russian asset' in part because he hopes that his wares might be spared to some degree?