So far, the beginning of October is very similar to the beginning of August. Back then bitcoin also started to rise from the first days of the month. I wouldn't count on any serious price recovery this year, but local growth and pumping of altcoins may well happen. There is plenty of fuel for growth in the market, everyone expects a bad scenario and shorts.
There is really no way of knowing what’s going to happen with bitcoin because it's a volatile and unpredictable thing. We could see it finish the month at 30k+, or we could see it finishing under 20k, both of them are equally possible. Nobody could convince me that it is "impossible" for it to break ATH just inside this month, I know it’s hard but technically speaking it is possible and that’s what I believe in bitcoins power.
I am not saying that’s what we are going to have, like I said I do not kow what’s going to happen but I know that none of us could ever know what’s going to happen which is why we should be a bit more careful when investing.
I agree with you that at any moment the market could turn around and bitcoin could start to rise sharply, just as it could fall back to a new bottom. But the bears have been in the market for a long time, almost a year now, so many have a feeling or analysis, call it what you will, that there is likely to be a rise soon. Some indicators and statistics say so too. But once again I agree with you that these are just predictions and no one can say what will happen in the future.
Basically no one knows what will happen this October, so everyone is free to predict where the Bitcoin price will go. All possibilities can happen,
especially since we know that Bitcoin's movements are very volatile, therefore it is difficult to predict. So it's better for us to make decisions based on
our own research and analysis, rather than relying on other people's predictions that don't guarantee accuracy. But if we see the bear market
has been running for almost a year and there is no indication that the bear market will end. I think the bear market will probably last until the end of
the year, meaning that the probability of Bitcoin price falling lower in October is greater. Even if Bitcoin price falls lower in October it's not something
we need to worry about, because as long as we don't sell Bitcoin at low prices, we shouldn't have lost. Most importantly, we must use the opportunity
to accumulate Bitcoin if it turns out that the Bitcoin price drops and hold until the market recovers.