BTC's circulating supply is now 19 billion out of the 21 billion caps.
Is it possible to calculate how much the price of BTC will go up until it hits the 21 billion cap?
I know there is some complicated math you can do about circulating supply, market cap, price etc, it's all connected,
How can I calculate the price potential of BTC within the next 1-10 years?
This is impossible to do, we must remember that the price is an aggregate of what everyone in the market is thinking about the price of bitcoin, this means it is not controlled by a single person or indicator but by millions of people all of which have contradictory beliefs, needs and wants, so predicting accurately what the price will be over the long term is not something that can be done, you could make some calculations which could give you a range, but that is as far you will be able to go in your quest.
So many people owns btc but if there are people who owns large quantities of it then I think it's possible for them to influence the price if they will sell it. They can be called as a whale. Many of us only want's to earn so we buy more btc and then hodl it but there will always be whales which are against with what we are planning. It's kind suck though.
Other than the whales, there is also bear market but I think this one is mostly natural though I think a whale can interfere with it making the bear moves un naturally or making the duration more longer like on what we are experiencing now. They say it was only a 4 year cycle but I don't believe on it.
You have a point, whales without a doubt are powerful enough to move the market, however they have to be opportunistic on their moves, for example if whales tried to create a bullish trend now I think they will fail as there is still a lot of fear in the market and many investors which are trapped and losing money will use an increase in the price to sell their coins, and as such whales will fail in their attempt to pump the price, so even whales need the help from small traders in order for their manipulations to succeed.