The cycling does not actually have that effects on the bitcoin price anymore lot of prediction about bitcoin that it could gets to what people  don't even think of, yet today bitcoin couldn't go that much lower as they thought it should be. To me what I understood and taking note of is that there is always much variation in every year but the turning point doesn't really takes action between length of 4 years rather 2 to 3 years before the next bitcoin halving. So if you may ask me I will suggest you should take your time and do your analysis careful.