I made that thread here to share my thoughts too
Bitcoin price with a 4 year cycle?, where I once believed that the 4 year cycle would repeat itself but right now I don't believe that the cycle should repeat 4 years, the bull run could come in 2023 or 2024 without having to wait for 2025 where people people are ready to throw it in that year, this is an old fashioned way of capturing so it is necessary to also look at what changes in each cycle, even if viewed from the previous charts it is never the same
Repeat means that everything happens to be roughly the same and there are many similarities, you can't expect them to be the same in every detail. I still believe bitcoin's 4 year cycle is still going on, bitcoin will only rise and hit new ATH after halving, there will be no chance bitcoin hit ATH before halving. In addition, looking at the current economic situation, it can be seen that the possibility of a bull season in 2023 is unlikely, war, crisis and interest rates have not shown any signs of slowing down. I can't find a good reason why 2023 is the year of the bull.