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Russia has issued a grim warning to the rest of the world: World War III is all but guaranteed if Ukraine’s Western allies continue to meddle in their ongoing conflict. Specifically, a top Kremlin official threatened worldwide destruction should NATO approve Ukraine’s request to join the organization. <...>
Of course, the threat of a nuclear conflict should not be underestimated, but I do not think that there are suicide bombers in the Kremlin or the Pentagon who are ready to destroy themselves and the whole world in a fiery hell. And even if there are such rabid psychopaths in the highest positions, they are more likely to be neutralized by people from their environment who want to live. However, while European leaders are now methodically killing the economies of their states and escalating the conflict more and more at the instigation of the USA, the confidence that a global war between East and West can be avoided is fading before our eyes.
There is no reason for Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons as part of a special operation in Ukraine, all speculation about this is groundless. The possibilities of conventional weapons are far from being exhausted. However, the situation is developing in such a way that the military defeat of Ukraine seems to be an unacceptable scenario for the development of events for the United States and NATO. And for Russia, a military defeat of Russia is unacceptable. Under such conditions, the probability of an attempt to cut the tightening Gordian knot with a strategic nuclear strike is higher than zero. I think Russia's numerous threats about possible strikes on decision-making centers are not "the last Chinese warning" and are not directed at Kyiv at all, but at Washington and London. I see one of the most realistic scenarios for such a strike in the combat use of Poseidon nuclear drones. One Poseidon of half power is enough to wash away London and all of England with a radioactive tsunami. Four full-power Poseidons (two from the Atlantic and two from the Pacific) are enough to wash away Washington, New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco and create a deserted coastal zone 500 km deep on both coasts of the United States. After that, apparently, a mutual exchange of missile strikes between Russia and the United States and a test of the combat capability of their missile defense systems will begin. The chances of Russia in the post-apocalypse world, in my opinion, are higher than the chances of the United States, primarily for geographical reasons (vulnerability to strikes from the ocean), and secondly for technical reasons (the United States has no effective countermeasures against Poseidon, plus Russia has a hypersonic weapons and the overall advantage of delivery vehicles, plus, in my opinion, the missile defense system in Russia is more effective than the missile defense system in the United States). But the main beneficiary of such a scenario would likely be China (if the conflict in Taiwan does not erupt before the conflict in Ukraine enters a critical phase).