Most investors are probably out of money. Now whale will play their game to spread panic. A quick pump to let patient investors into the market and then dump it so that weak hands can get out of it. A pretty well-planned strategy could be already in place and we just don't know when it will be. Or nothing will happen who knows? It is crypto and that is why it is interesting.
It's a hood thing of you acknowledging the uncertainty part of the whole development but it seems from your comment, your more about the speculation of a dump rather than a rise. Your opinion though and I don't stand to argue that but I think, the market has dumped just well enough with its dip for this bearish market somewhere around $17k.
Imagining a dip below that would be thinking too harshly on the market and a take so bad on investors. I mean, this is a fall from an ATH of $64k. I think the market would or is already slowly correcting itself and would fully be unto the bulls after the halving.