I don't say it will or it won't. I will say that I can tell "it won't" only after the price gets much higher.
The current move may be a bull trap or may be the end of the bear market. While I hope for the second, the current bear market gave me plenty of bad surprises, so I won't be too optimistic.
Bitcoin was at certain low price like $3800 before. Bitcoin increased to $19600 in December 2017, but it was the other way in 2018, it decreases below $3900. It increased but again decreased below $3900 in 2019. Bitcoin halved in 2020, but two months before halving,, bitcoin decreased below $3900 again. But what about now? Can bitcoin decreased below $3800? No. That is what you are saying, you are right. But I think Lucius is thinking about what I said, that even it is possible $19000 may still be broken again some times before 2024 halving, bit a time is coming that the $19000 will become $3900 of the past, in a way bitcoin can not fall below it anymore.