It's not the main factor I think because Quartararo must be riding hard to be no.1 on Valencia which I think like mission impossible to champion for this year. he is so burdened, while Bagnaia, just doesn't need to crash to be the champions, Bagnaia only needs to finish at 13th, whatever the result even Quartararo on 1st. So, I have no doubt Ducati, especially Bagnaia been a champion since in Sepang.
I'm saying something a little different from what you think, because what you're saying is what everyone is thinking right now, including myself. And one more thing is, Bagnaia doesn't need to finish in 13th place if she wants to become world champion this season, but it is enough to finish 14th to become world champion even though Quartararo finished first. Because when the number of points is the same, then the leader of the standings will still be the world champion, especially in terms of the number of wins this season is also more on Bagnaia's side.
But in this case I just want to say about the competition that Quartararo has so far provided with the weakest bike on the MotoGP grid. If Quartararo hadn't crashed in Assen, Aragon, Australia and had failed to score one point in Thailand during a wet race, then the story would have been a little different even though Bagnaia would have also become world champion this season. But the competition will be much fiercer and it won't look easy for either of them, because this season no rider from another manufacturer can compete until the end like Bagnaia and Quartararo did.