Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
MahaRamana
on 08/04/2014, 03:25:58 UTC
[Anyway one has to recognise that the past exponential trend line MUST be broken sooner or later. The questions is only if it is broken this year (which I believe), the year after that, or the next. What would be the price of BTC in April 2017 if we would stay on the trend line ?  Wink

I have a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that suggests an expected price of $840,503 on July 1, 2017, if we stay on that trend line. Close enough?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c

The probability of such price in 2017 is very low in my opinion. This model, or rather the belief that it still has predictive interest, will not hold much longer.
I am a medium-term bull on bitcoin but this is way too much. I don't say it has 0 probability of happening, but even if we factor the hyperinflation risks, probability remains very low to see a market cap in the 11 trillions USD in three years, imho.