[Anyway one has to recognise that the past exponential trend line MUST be broken sooner or later. The questions is only if it is broken this year (which I believe), the year after that, or the next. What would be the price of BTC in April 2017 if we would stay on the trend line ?

I have a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that suggests an expected price of $840,503 on July 1, 2017, if we stay on that trend line. Close enough?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2cThe probability of such price in 2017 is very low in my opinion. This model, or rather the belief that it still has predictive interest, will not hold much longer.
I am a medium-term bull on bitcoin but this is way too much. I don't say it has 0 probability of happening, but even if we factor the hyperinflation risks, probability remains very low to see a market cap in the 11 trillions USD in three years, imho.